What Are the Chances That Donald Trump's Gaza Plan Will Be Effective?

The militant group's partial approval toward the US president's Gaza ceasefire deal on Friday was received global support and is the nearest Israel and Hamas have come in two years to ending the conflict in Gaza.

How Near Is a Deal?

The Palestinian faction's qualified support of the US proposal marks the nearest mediators have reached over the last several months to a comprehensive conclusion to the war inside the Gaza Strip. However, they are still distant from an agreement.

The US president's multi-point initiative to stop the war requires for the group release every captive within 72 hours, give up ruling power to a transnational body headed by the US president, and lay down its weapons. In return, Israel would gradually pull back its soldiers from the Gaza Strip and release more than one thousand inmates.

The proposal includes a surge of relief supplies to Gaza, some areas of which are experiencing starvation, and recovery financing to Gaza, which has been nearly completely devastated.

Hamas only agreed regarding three clauses: the release of every captive, the handing over of power and the pullout of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip. The group declared the rest of the agreement would have to be discussed together with additional Palestinian factions, since it forms a component of a “collective national stance”.

In practice, this implies the group seeks additional talks regarding the more difficult aspects of the Trump deal, particularly the request that it disarms, and a clear timeline on Israel’s withdrawal.

Where and When Will Talks Take Place?

Negotiators have flown to the Egyptian capital to work out details to bridge the differences between Israel and Hamas.

Negotiations will start on Monday and are expected to yield outcomes within a few days, regardless of the outcome.

Trump posted a picture of a map showing Gaza last Saturday evening depicting the boundary to which Israeli troops should withdraw and said if Hamas agreed to the terms, that the ceasefire would start right away. The US president is anxious to conclude the war as it approaches to its two year mark and before the Nobel prize committee declares the recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize in October, an issue that is a frequently mentioned obsession for him.

The Israeli prime minister said an agreement to secure the return of Israeli captives home should preferably happen over the next few days.

What Gaps Are Left?

The two sides have been cautious their bets going into the talks.

Hamas has repeatedly refused to lay down its arms during previous talks. It has given no word whether its stance has changed on this, despite it broadly accepts to the US proposal, with conditions. The US and Israel have emphasized that there is limited flexibility regarding the disarmament demand and are resolved to bind Hamas through firm wording in any agreement going forward.

The militant faction additionally stated it accepted surrendering power over Gaza to a technocratic governing force, as outlined in the US proposal. However, in a statement, the militant group specified it would agree to a Palestinian technocratic governing body, not the international body that Trump laid out in its plan.

Israel has also sought to keep the matter of its troop withdrawal unclear. Only a few hours after announcing the US proposal during a shared media briefing in the US capital recently, the prime minister released a recording assuring Israelis that soldiers would stay across much of Gaza.

Last Saturday evening, the Israeli prime minister reiterated that troops would remain inside Gaza, stating that hostages would be returned while the Israeli military would stay “deep inside the strip”.

The prime minister's stance seemingly stands with the stipulation in the US proposal that Israeli troops completely pull out from the territory. Hamas will seek reassurances that Israel will completely leave and that if Hamas gives up its weapons, Israeli troops will not return to the strip.

Negotiators must close these gaps, obtaining firm, unambiguous terms on disarmament from Hamas. They will also have to demonstrate to the faction that the Israeli government will genuinely pull out from the territory and that there will be global assurances that will compel Israel to adhere to the terms of the agreement.

The disagreements could be reconciled, and the United States will certainly push both parties to achieve an agreement. Nevertheless, negotiations have come near to an agreement previously abruptly failing multiple times in the past two years, leaving both parties wary of declaring victory before pen is on paper.

Zachary Gross
Zachary Gross

An avid hiker and travel writer with a passion for exploring Italy's hidden natural gems and sharing outdoor adventures.