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In his 2024 presidential campaign, the former president vowed to steer clear of costly and frequently catastrophic foreign military interventions like those in Iraq and Afghanistan. This assurance was a key part of his isolationist “America first” policy. Yet within months taking office, American military units were conducting bombings in Yemen and Iran. Looking southward, Trump threatened to seize the Panama Canal. Currently, the Pentagon is preparing for possible strikes against alleged “terrorist” narco-trafficking organizations within the borders of Colombia and Mexico. Most urgent worry is a potential renewed White House attempt to forcibly impose a new government on Venezuela.

Venezuela's Reaction and Rising Tensions

Venezuela's president, the nation's socialist authoritarian president, asserts that this campaign has already begun. He alleges that the US is waging an “undeclared war” against his country following multiple deadly strikes against Venezuelan vessels in the high seas. Trump recently informed Congress that America is engaged in hostilities with narco-trafficking groups. He alleges, without providing evidence, that the attacked boats were carrying illegal narcotics bound for the US – and that Maduro is responsible. He has issued a multimillion-dollar reward for Maduro’s head.

Regional governments are nervously watching a major US military build-up near Venezuela, featuring naval vessels, F-35 fighter jets, an attack submarine and 2,200 marines. Such powerful assets are not very useful for anti-drug operations. But they might be used for attack, or to support commando operations and bombing runs. Recently, Venezuela alleged Washington of an “illegal incursion” by at least five F-35s. Maduro states he is preparing emergency powers to defend citizens in case Venezuela comes under attack by the American empire.

Analyzing the Reasons Behind the Moves

What exactly is Trump doing? Narcotics trafficking is a serious problem – yet taking lives arbitrarily on the high seas, while common and difficult to prosecute, is still illegal. Moreover, the UN says most of the cocaine reaching the US comes from Colombia, Peru and Ecuador, and is largely not trafficked via Venezuela. The president, a former avoided military service, likes to act the strong commander-in-chief. He is now trying to deport Venezuelan migrants, many of whom originally fled to America due to sanctions he himself enforced. Some analysts propose he desires Venezuela’s vast oil, gas and natural wealth.

Indeed that the president and his former national security adviser, attempted to replace Maduro back in 2019 in what Caracas described as an overthrow attempt. It’s also true, the president's recent electoral victory was widely condemned as fraudulent. Given a free choice, Venezuelans would almost certainly remove him. And, clashing ideologies play a role, as well. Maduro, poor successor to his predecessor's Bolivarian revolution, is offensive to Trump’s imperial idea of a US-dominated western hemisphere, where the historic policy is revived and free-market capitalism operates unchecked.

Absence of Clear Planning

However given his hapless blundering on other major international issues, the most likely reason for Trump’s actions is that, as usual, he lacks understanding what he’s doing – in Venezuela or the region overall. No strategy exists. He acts aggressively, takes rash decisions, stokes fear about immigrants and bases policy based on if he “likes” other leaders. In 2019, when the Venezuelan leader in trouble, the US president backed down. Now, full-scale armed involvement in the country is still improbable. More likely is an intensified campaign of coercion involving destabilisation, penalties, maritime strikes, and aerial and special forces operations.

Far from weakening and marginalizing Maduro's government, Trump may achieve the reverse. Maduro is already using the situation to seize authoritarian emergency authority and mobilize public opinion with patriotic calls for unity. Trump’s aggression towards additional left-leaning regional countries – like Colombia – and overconfident cheerleading for conservative populists from Argentina and El Salvador – is spurring a regional backlash, too. Most governments detest the idea of a return to the bad old days of American meddling in Washington’s “back yard”.

Regional Reaction and Foreign Policy Setbacks

The administration's attempt to employ punitive tariffs and restrictions to strong-arm Brazil into pardoning its disgraced hard-right leader Jair Bolsonaro backfired dramatically recently. Massive protests demonstrated in Brazilian cities to defend what they rightly saw as an assault on Brazilian sovereignty and rule of law. The popularity of the new president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, soared. “We are not, and will never become, a dependent state,” he stated. Lula told Trump, essentially, to back off. Then, when they met during the United Nations general assembly, the American leader retreated and played nice.

The perception of a significant regression in US-Latin America relations increases inevitably. “His administration views the region primarily as a danger, associating it with narcotics trade, organised crime and immigration,” a noted expert warned recently. American policy is essentially adversarial, favoring independent moves and dominance rather than partnership,” she added, stating: Latin America is viewed not as a peer and rather as a sphere of influence to be controlled according to American goals.”

Aggressive Advisers and Rising Rhetoric

The president's hawkish aides are part of the problem: notably a senior official, White House top aide, and the secretary of state, an ex- Republican senator for Florida who is top diplomat and national security adviser. In his view, a long-standing critic of leftwing governments in Cuba and Nicaragua, Maduro remains a target. Defending the naval strikes, he stated: Seizures doesn’t work. What will stop them is when you blow them up … And it’ll happen again.” Coming from the top US diplomat, this is quite a statement.

Future Consequences

The president's efforts to reprise the position of regional neighbourhood policeman, emulating former president Theodore Roosevelt – a big stick-wielding frequent meddler – are regressive, risky and counterproductive. Long-term, the big winner will most likely be Beijing, a growingly influential player, economic partner and key participant of the Brics group of nations. While America burns its bridges globally, the administration is making China rise in influence.