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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, though experts suggest the party stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and established a four-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

However, PVV's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer over a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign dominated by issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with several facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the vote earns a party one MP. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant division ensures that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from power. However, critics and analysts argue that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations could take several months, political observers suggest that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a broad-based alliance led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.